Every Terraform product starts as hydrogen, plus CO₂ or nitrogen. This ranks the oil, gas, petrochemical and fertilizer industries by what each pays per MWh of Terraform methane, methanol or ammonia, after any downstream conversion. Each step opens when synthesis cost falls below it.
| # | Tier | Route | Market price | Netback | $/MWh(t) | Volume | Opens at (TF) | Netback $/yr | Cumulative |
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Netback per MWh (LHV) of the Terraform intermediate: methane at 50 MJ/kg, methanol at 19.9 MJ/kg, ammonia at 18.6 MJ/kg. Gas prices are converted from HHV. Per kg of hydrogen the three intermediates hold 99, 105 and 106 MJ, so this axis also ranks hydrogen value to within 7%.
Hydrogen view: cumulative hydrogen absorbed, in Terraformer-years (one Terraformer makes 2.4 MMcf of methane a year, 23.2 t of hydrogen). Revenue view: cumulative annual netback to Terraform, starting from the first Terraformer’s $1.2M. The cost path follows the same deployment in both, so the gap at each step is identical.
(product price − conversion cost) ÷ tonnes of methanol per tonne of product. Methanol demand is counted on a carbon basis at 100% conversion: 2.29 t per tonne of CH₂ product. Conversion costs are estimates within about ±30%. Real MTO and MTG yields would cut these netbacks by 10–15%.
The olefin and aromatic tier is replaced by the products made from it. The Grade AA tier excludes the ~30 Mt of methanol already used for MTO. Naphtha and petrochemical LPG are left out of the fuels because they are polymer feed. The Henry Hub tier excludes the LNG and niche gas tiers above it.
Hydrogen plus nitrogen from air, about 185 Mt of NH₃ a year. Tiers are netbacks per tonne of ammonia: urea nets back (urea price − urea synthesis − DAC CO₂) ÷ 0.567 t NH₃ per tonne. Captive ammonia for nitrates, phosphates and chemicals is priced at gas-based replacement cost. Ammonia as a ship or power fuel is left out, since it would compete for the same demand as methanol marine fuel. Prices are approximate 2025 levels, to about ±30%.
Carbon black is better made by methane pyrolysis. Bitumen, petcoke, sulphur and chlor-alkali products are left out, as bunker fuel was, because nobody would synthesise them from scratch.
Polyethylene and polypropylene net back $284–327 per tonne of methanol. Chinese MTO plants break even at a methanol price of roughly $300–350/t. MTG breaks even near $230/t with oil at $70, which is close to the gasoline netback here.